How Will the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening Impact Markets?

Federal Reserve's QuantitativeStarting June 1, the Fed began reducing its balance sheet holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $30 billion a month for three months. Thereafter, it will double its reduction of U.S. Treasuries by $60 billion per month beginning in the fourth month. For its mortgage-backed securities, the first three months will see $17.5 billion roll off its balance sheet. Starting in the fourth month of the program, this cap will increase to $35 billion per month. As its dual mandate is to both maintain employment and a stable rate of inflation, this is another way the Fed is implementing its monetary policy to put the brakes on inflation and reign in out-of-control demand with limited supply. How will the Fed’s unwinding of its balance sheet impact markets for the rest of 2022?

Instead of quantitative easing (QE), where the Fed bought U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to foster more demand for U.S. Treasuries and lower bond yields, QT is the opposite. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse type of policy that aims to unwind holdings on the Fed’s balance sheet. To tame inflation, QT removes liquidity from economic institutions and raises rates for long-dated assets.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed bought U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-back securities (MBS) again in March 2020 to provide stability by maintaining a source of easily accessible credit for consumers and business owners. The Fed bought $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of MBS per month. The Fed’s balance sheet grew from $3.9 trillion (March 2020) to $8.5 trillion (May 2022). Looking at it from a percentage of GDP, it increased from 18 percent to 35 percent. When QT is in full force, it is expected to lower the Fed’s balance sheet by at least $1.1 trillion annualized. Over a three-year timeframe, it is expected to remove about $3 trillion over 36 months.

When it comes to the process of QT, it is important to understand how it works and impacts the overall market dynamics. When U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities mature, the respective issuing agency pays them off and the Fed receives payment. Unlike QE where the proceeds were reinvested, the proceeds will not be reinvested during QT and the Fed’s balance sheet will fall in size.  

When it comes to global central banks implementing their own versions of QT, it is estimated that as much as $2 trillion will be removed from markets over the next 12 months. Looking at the Fed alone, it is aiming to reduce $1 trillion or 11 percent of its holdings from the balance sheet over the next year. If QT continues through 2024, its holdings will drop from 37 percent of GDP to 20 percent. With the Fed’s balance sheet containing almost $9 trillion and inflation being 8.5 percent of the current CPI reading, this pace is higher because the last time it conducted QT, the Fed’s balance sheet held $4.5 trillion in assets with a CPI of 2.75 percent.

Looking at potential scenarios of QT outcomes, the Fed has published three respective impacts on the Fed’s policy rate. The Baseline scenario, or following what began on June 1, would lead to what’s effectively a policy rate increase of 56 basis points. This is compared to a “no-runoff scenario,” leaving the Fed’s balance sheet with another $2.1 trillion in Q3 of 2024, whereby there is no QT in place. Looking at the full-runoff scenario, it would let $0.8 trillion roll off the Fed’s balance sheet by Q3 of 2024, necessitating a nine-basis point drop in the policy rate to offset the balance sheet’s negative impact on the macroeconomy.

When the pandemic struck in March 2020, the Fed Funds rate was cut to between 0 percent  and 0.25 percent. On Jan 26, 2022, the FOMC maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 percent to 0.25 percent. Fast forward to June 15, 2022: The FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent. Depending on the evolving economic data surrounding inflation, the Fed appears willing to further adjust its target range. It is important to explore how the federal funds rate has led the market to interpret asset purchasing or unwinding actions by the Fed.

During 2017 and 2018, the FOMC increased the federal funds rate by 175 basis points, bringing it to approximately 2.25 percent. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard argued that once the federal funds rate is north of zero, be it QE or QT, how the balance sheet grows or shrinks has little say on how the Fed will steer its monetary policy.

While the economy is in uncharted territory due to its emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving monetary policy, only time will tell how much of an effect QT will have on the U.S. and global markets.

Have the Markets Bottomed or is it a Bear Market Rally?

With the S&P down nearly 20 percent and the Nasdaq index down nearly 4,000 points since the beginning of 2022, one could say the indices are in a bear market. While we can’t predict the future, economic indicators can offer some insight into the likelihood of the market’s future performance.

There are many ways to determine how the market might act the next day, week or longer into the future. Looking at sectors and how they’ve performed against the entire market is a good way to see if it’s bottomed out or if it’s time to look at other sectors. Volatility and the near-term expectations are other ways to see how professional investors gauge the market’s future moves. Reviewing the current and expected path of monetary policy and evolving economic indicators are still other ways to determine how markets will likely perform going forward.

The VIX and Market Capitulation

The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) or “fear gauge” is one indicator of a market bottom. When investors attempt to hedge their investments, especially when volatility is expected, long options on the VIX can provide an “insurance policy” against falling equity prices. While there have been many levels on the VIX in the mid-30s, it often reaches levels in the 40s, 50s or even potentially higher to see a true bottom or market capitulation. Looking back to the 2008/2009 financial crisis, the VIX spiked to 79.13 on Oct. 20, 2008. Similarly, the VIX spiked to 82.69 on March 16, 2020, during the lows of the COVID-19 crash.

Measuring the Put/Call Ratio

Another indicator to gauge if the market has bottomed is when there’s a large consensus of bearishness. Using the put/call ratio, investors can see the current and past ratios of puts to calls presently held in the market. As the number of puts increase relative to call options, or the number of contracts betting stocks will increase in price over time, it indicates the market movers are expecting a down-turn in the markets. As the put/call ratio rises, it implies investors are feeling more and more bearish about the markets. When the ratio hits an extreme, higher implying a market bottom and lower implying a market top, investors are signaling they are nearing a turn in the markets.

Analyzing Moving Averages

When it comes to moving averages (a 50-, 100- or 200-day, for example), it can help establish trends for stock price action. Depending on the moving average used, the lower the number of stocks above or below a particular moving day average, the sector’s or index’s strength and direction can be measured. When it comes to measuring an index or a sector with a moving average, if a trend is showing more stocks are declining and staying below a moving average, it gives investors a sign of bearishness. If a big percentage, such as 70 percent or 80 percent of an index or sector, is below a particular moving average, this can indicate it may be forming a bottom or oversold conditions.

The Federal Reserve and Managing Inflation

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the historic range for the federal funds rate grew from 11 1/3 percent to 11 3/4 percent based on decisions from the September 1979 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Oct. 6, 1979, FOMC meeting created a four percent range for the federal funds rate (11.5 percent to 15.5 percent). By the end of 1979, the federal funds rate was nearly 14 percent, reaching 17.60 percent during 1980. Then January 1989 saw a recession due to the Fed changing reserve requirements, adding on additional fees for loans directly from the Fed, and promoting the economy to be more judicious in obtaining new loans. These changes led to interest rates rising toward the end of 1980, creating another recession in July 1980. While unemployment increased, inflation fell to four percent as 1982 closed out, compared to inflation running 14.6 percent annually between May 1979 and April 1980.

Immediately before the Oct. 6, 1979, FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 index hit a peak of 111.27 at closing the day before. Following a trend that began the Monday after the FOMC meeting, it eventually hit a “double-bottom”: 100 on Oct. 25, 1979, and then 99.87 on Nov. 7, 1979. It eventually reached a high of 118.44 on Feb. 13, 1980, before falling back to its last lows on March 27, 1980, to 98.22, and then eventually seeing an upturn.

While there are many economic, technical and fundamental indicators to gauge the direction of the stock market, taking a comprehensive approach to analyze the markets is not foolproof and risk can be mitigated only to a certain degree.

How Will the Federal Reserve React to Increasing Inflation?

The Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Price Index rose by 8.5 percent year-over-year ending March 2022, leading most economists to agree that inflation is going to be with us for a while. With inflation seeming not to abate, at least in the near term, how will different types of investments react to inflation that is sustained and unknown when it will peak and begin to drop. Looking at a 2004 study from the Federal Reserve, an unexpected 25-basis point rate cut can be expected to see equities appreciate by one percent.

Defining Different Rates

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the federal funds rate – the overnight rate at which banks borrow from each other. This undoubtedly will impact the economy and the domestic and global stock markets. While it can take months, if not more than a year, for a change in interest rates to have a universal impact, the stock markets see the impact sooner. This is opposed to the discount rate, which is the interest rate banks are charged when loans come from regional Federal Reserve Banks – the so called discount window.

One main reason the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate is to shape inflation. When the federal funds rate is raised, it is trying to reduce the money supply available for consumers and businesses. With less money available to circulate throughout the economy, it costs more to borrow money as interest rates rise.

Another important reason to keep an eye on the federal funds rate is due to the fact that the prime interest rate is based largely on the federal funds rate. Whether a mortgage, credit card or other personal or commercial loan, the prime interest rate is an influential factor in these lending vehicles’ interest rates. As the Fed Board of Governors explains, the prime rate is how each individual bank determines its own interest rates. Their unique prime rate is based on the target level of the federal funds rate, which is how much other banks charge them for short-term loans. Once the prime rate is established, it is used as a reference base rate for a multitude of lending products, including personal and commercial loans and credit card lines.

FOMC and Federal Funds Rate Adjustments

As the Federal Reserve increases its discount rate, short-term borrowing costs for financial institutions increase. Financial institutions in-turn are pushed to increase borrowing costs for companies and consumers. Whether it is a credit card or a mortgage, rates increase. The higher the interest rate, the less spending ability the account holder has. The account holder also sees higher bills via the higher interest rates. The higher the bills, the less money they can spend elsewhere, often impacting the economy.

Rising Rates and the Markets

Publicly traded companies can suffer in different ways. A company may bring in less revenue or have higher borrowing costs, cutting into its growth forecast or reducing its profits. Companies also may see lower growth expectations and a decline in future cash flow projections. Assuming no other changes, the stock price will likely fall. Depending on how severe the increase in interest rates, this can impact entire sectors – and depending on how much weight a particular company comprises within an index, an entire index.

Bond Market Dynamics and Interest Rate Fluctuations

Compared to corporate bonds, where bondholders are first in line to be paid if a company goes bankrupt, government securities, such as Treasury bills and bonds, are viewed as more likely to pay their investors back even in more challenging financial circumstances. This is because, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.

As the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) gives an example, interest rates have a noticeable impact on bonds. Say a bond is sold for X and matures in Y years down the road with a Z percent coupon at par value. Twelve months later, interest rates have risen and another of the same type and amount of bond is issued at the same par value but is issued with a one or two percent higher coupon rate. Based on these two different bonds’ characteristics, the original bond is less attractive on the open market. If the original bondholder wants to sell a bond issued a year ago, he will have to sell for less than face value due to the more attractive interest rate of the newly issued bond.

While there is much uncertainty in the financial markets, including the FOMC and the bond and equity markets, understanding how past market moves have occurred can offer guidance to how increasing interest rate environments may evolve in this rate-tightening environment.

How Will Oil Prices and Consumer Spending Impact Markets?

According to the March 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the forecast is for high energy prices in 2022. The report found that Brent crude oil, used as a benchmark ex-U.S., is expected to see prices of $116 per barrel in Q2 of 2022. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the price the U.S. uses as a benchmark, is expected to cost consumers, on average, $4.10 a gallon in Q2 of 2022.

The World Economic Forum blames volatile oil and energy prices in general on demand outstripping supply. This is attributed to OPEC not expressing a sense of urgency to ramp up supply, having a certain amount of spare capacity, and not being in a rush to create a glut in supply for global markets. Additionally, it’s attributed the lack of new exploration and resulting supplies coming online due to the shock of oil falling to -$40 per barrel during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also includes the transition to greener forms of energy, including pressure from activist investors looking to transition from fossil fuels. Hence, there are multiple factors putting pressure on traditional sources of fuel.

Looking further at the U.S. EIA’s March 2022 STEO, the price is expected to remain well above average. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to be $113 per barrel in March and average $112 per barrel in Q2 of 2022. The price per gallon domestically is projected to hit $4.12 in May of 2022, then drop through the rest of 2022. Over the entire year, the price per gallon of gas is projected to be $3.79 per gallon (the most expensive since 2014), and average lower to $3.33 per gallon in 2023.

It’s important to note that the EIA’s STEO was completed prior to the U.S. government’s March ban on importation of oil, liquified natural gas and coal from Russia, along with the United Kingdom announcing it was phasing out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The European Union also communicated that it would “significantly reduce fossil fuels” from Europe before 2030. These announcements were coupled with multi-national oil companies declaring plans to cease operations in Russia and end partnerships. These actions are expected to lower oil production by Russia, but the ultimate outcome is dependent on global reactions and how they impact fuel stocks.

When it comes to seeing how increased and likely sustained fuel prices will impact economies, history is a helpful guide to predict how things might play out in 2022. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), their data examines “the price of oil since the early 1950s.” According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973 ushered in a period of volatility for oil, which contrasts with the FRBSF’s data on relatively stable prices through the 1950s.

In 1973, the Yom Kippur War disrupted prices and again the Iranian Revolution of 1979 saw another disruption. These energy market interruptions were both full of tepid expansion, hot inflation and too few jobs available for job seekers.  

Often considered a hidden tax on households, out of control inflation takes consumer interest away from other services and goods due to lowering a household’s affluence, along with giving consumers less economic certainty going forward. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a 2007 study found that five of the past seven recessions occurred shortly after oil prices climbed substantially, attributed in part to lower levels of income and a less certain outlook for the economy.

As prices for gasoline increase, how much consumers will likely spend on other goods and services varies, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research paper titled “The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices.” This research looked at the impact of gas falling during 2014. Based on U.S. Consumer Survey, the average total household spending was $53,495 in 2014, with $2,468 spent on gasoline per household in 2014. The same report points out that while crude was $100 per barrel in mid-2014, it went to sub-$50 per barrel by January 2015.

It’s important to keep in mind that while the price of oil was quite volatile, on par with that of the 1970s, inflation during the 1990s and 2000s didn’t really make material increases to inflation levels, impact GDP expansion negatively or lower the unemployment rate. The divergence and less deleterious effects of inflation during the 1990s and 2000s were likely set off by big gains in productivity realized in the first decade of the 21st century.

There’s nuance when determining if rising oil prices are helpful, hurtful or neutral for stock and market performances, according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration 2017 report called “Oil Prices and Stock Markets.” The study points out that looking at sectors or industries will give us a better picture of how oil prices impact stocks – whether it’s good, bad or neutral. For example, the study gives three ways to measure stock performance considering oil prices: “oil-users, oil-substitutes or non-oil-related.”

For example, all segments of the exploration, extraction, processing and refining of different energies (coal, natural gas, crude oil, etc.) will naturally see benefits. However, when it comes to manufacturers, transportation companies or food suppliers, these industries will see downward pressure on their earnings (and therefore stock price) due to pressure on increases of inputs and the mixed ability to pass on costs to consumers.

While the outlook for crude oil cannot be determined and geopolitical and economic conditions are fluid, it depends upon the sector and how businesses are managed when it comes to the probability of profitability of publicly traded stocks.

How Soon and Fast Will the Fed Raise Rates?

Will the Fed Raise RatesThere’s much uncertainty surrounding if, how and when the Federal Reserve will raise its rates, end its bond and mortgage-backed security purchases, and wind down its balance sheet. For the March 16 Fed Meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool has a 47.9 percent probability of a 25 to 50 basis point increase, and a 52.1 percent probability of a 50 to 75 basis point increase for their Target Rate. There are many expectations for the Fed to raise its Federal Funds rate, or the so-called overnight lending interbank rate. However, there’s a lot of uncertainty as to how many times the FOMC will increase it.

John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, mentioned at a recent event that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will start raising rates at its March 2022 meeting,  but he isn’t advocating for a particularly hawkish approach. Rather, Williams expects inflation to drop due to supply-chain bottlenecks being naturally worked out, along with the Fed’s measured policy actions moderating inflation. However, James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president, is more hawkish and has expressed a desire for a 50 basis point rate hike.

Lael Brainard, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, believes six rate hikes are an appropriate course for monetary policy, starting in March 2022. Charles Evans, Chicago Fed president, blames inflation on the pandemic and echoes that supply chain issues will resolve on their own as the world returns to its new normal. Evans also believes that hiring won’t be slowed with higher rates, compared to past rate hike cycles. However, this could change if inflation grows too high as 2022 progress, necessitating more rate hikes.

The Fed has communicated clearly that it will let 1) evolving economic data, in conjunction with 2) maximum employment, and 3) 2 percent longer-term inflation expectations, guide its monetary policy. Noting there’s been a strengthening labor market, it’ll continuously look at how the pandemic is managed healthwise, how global developments unfold and how inflation is expected to and materializes.

It’s important to note that during August 2020, the Fed took a new approach to inflation. Previously, the approach would be to increase borrowing rates during good economic times to prevent inflation from becoming a problem. However, as of August 2020, the Fed’s new approach is to maintain low rates until inflation actually materialized, permitting economic conditions that drive inflation above and below 2 percent. This would thereby create a longer-term average inflation rate of 2 percent when considering monetary policy adjustments.

This is within the perspective of inflation reaching 7.5 percent year-over-year in January 2022, according to the Labor Department. Month-over-month inflation readings include electricity rising 4.2 percent from December 2021 to January 2022. Food costs rose by 0.9 percent in January 2022, up from another 0.5 percent increase in December 2021.

According to the FOMC’s Jan. 26 meeting minutes, there’s much to be contemplated for any potential rate changes. The members found that inflation was elevated, with economic indicators showing inflationary pressures increased in the back half of 2021. In December, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was 7 percent, while core CPI inflation was 5.5 percent over the same period.

The year-over-year November 2021 total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation was 5.7 percent, with the core PCE coming in at 4.7 percent for the same timeframe. When it comes to the unemployment rate, it fell from 4.2 percent in November 2021 to 3.9 percent in December.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Looking at the price of crude oil alone shows how inflation is fluctuating. On Feb. 24, futures contracts at one point had oil hitting $100 and $105 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and Brent, respectively. While prices retreated, prices are still elevated and subject to international tensions, increasing demand due to the economy reopening from COVID and uncertainty over future output. Undoubtedly, the Fed will take inflation into account – both its new definition of longer-term 2 percent inflation and how it might impact the economy. Some speculate with the high volatility beginning in 2022, the Fed may raise rates by only 25 basis points, not the 50 basis points more hawkish FOMC members have mentioned.

With increased volatility since 2022 began and global uncertainty increasing by the day, it seems the FOMC will have the final say on how many rate hikes will eventually happen.